Friday, January 16, 2009

Is the recession a bad thing?

Recession. It's just a word. Is it a good word or bad word? Is it as scary as it seems?

It can be frightening to watch retire portfolios drop half its value in a short period of time. Jobs are more precious than ever. Foreclosures are up. Companies are not generating as much revenue as before and the government wants to pass another $825 billion stimulus package. Does the economy really need to be stimulated again?

Periods of expansion and contraction happen all the time. People love expansion, it means new cars, nice vacations, bigger homes, consumption, consumption, consumption. Consumers KNOW that the economy goes in cycles, yet complain when things are contracting. Some numbers thrown out by our economy suggest that consumer spending accounts for 72% of Gross Domestic Product. I don't know if people are ok with that, but that sounds awfully high and unstable and unhealthy to me. Are citizens satisfied with that figure? It sounds irresponsible to prop up the economy by spending.

I offer no solution, but wanted to point out that the recession is not a bad thing. It will bring the economy down to stable levels. The stock markets look ridiculously cheap compare to where they were a few years ago. Although they're at levels seen a decade ago, prudent investing would've netted dividends and great dollar cost averaging opportunities now. On the consumption side, do we really need a Starbucks on every corner? Maybe the need to save money will bring families together at night to eat a home cooked meal. I hope the recession allows everyone to take a step back and evaluate their lives and situation and still realize how good things are compared to the rest of the world.